The effect of insect food availability on songbird reproductive success and chick body condition: Evidence from a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Reports of declines in abundance and biomass of insects and other invertebrates from around the world have raised concerns about food limitation that could have profound impacts for insectivorous species. Food availability can clearly affect species; however, there is considerable variation among studies in whether this effect is evident, and thus a lack of clarity over the generality of the relationship. To understand how decreased food availability due to invertebrate declines will affect bird populations, we conducted a systematic review and used meta-analytic structural equation modelling, which allowed us to treat our core variables of interest as latent variables estimated by the diverse ways in which researchers measure fecundity and chick body condition. We found a moderate positive effect of food availability on chick body condition and a strong positive effect on reproductive success. We also found a negative relationship between chick body condition and reproductive success. Our results demonstrate that food is generally a limiting factor for breeding songbirds. Our analysis also provides evidence for a consistent trade-off between chick body condition and reproductive success, demonstrating the complexity of trophic dynamics important for these vital rates.

Extinction of biotic interactions due to habitat loss could accelerate the current biodiversity crisis.

Habitat loss disrupts species interactions through local extinctions, potentially orphaning species that depend on interacting partners, via mutualisms or commensalisms, and increasing secondary extinction risk. Orphaned species may become functionally or secondarily extinct, increasing the severity of the current biodiversity crisis. While habitat destruction is a major cause of biodiversity loss, the number of secondary extinctions is largely unknown. We investigate the relationship between habitat loss, orphaned species, and bipartite network properties. Using a real seed dispersal network, we simulate habitat loss to estimate the rate at which species are orphaned. To be able to draw general conclusions, we also simulate habitat loss in synthetic networks to quantify how changes in network properties affect orphan rates across broader parameter space. Both real and synthetic network simulations show that even small amounts of habitat loss can cause up to 10% of species to be orphaned. More area loss, less connected networks, and a greater disparity in the species richness of the network's trophic levels generally result in more orphaned species. As habitat is lost to land-use conversion and climate change, more orphaned species increase the loss of community-level and ecosystem functions. However, the potential severity of repercussions ranges from minimal (no species orphaned) to catastrophic (up to 60% of species within a network orphaned). Severity of repercussions also depends on how much the interaction richness and intactness of the community affects the degree of redundancy within networks. Orphaned species could add substantially to the loss of ecosystem function and secondary extinction worldwide.

Vegetation zones as indicators of denitrification potential in salt marshes.

Salt marsh vegetation zones shift in response to large-scale environmental changes such as sea-level rise (SLR) and restoration activities, but it is unclear if they are good indicators of soil nitrogen removal. Our goal was to characterize the relationship between denitrification potential and salt marsh vegetation zones in tidally restored and tidally unrestricted coastal marshes, and to use vegetation zones to extrapolate how SLR may influence high marsh denitrification at the landscape scale. We conducted denitrification enzyme activity assays on sediment collected from three vegetation zones expected to shift in distribution due to SLR and tidal flow restoration across 20 salt marshes in Connecticut, USA (n = 60 sampling plots) during the summer of 2017. We found lower denitrification potential in short-form Spartina alterniflora zones (mean, 95% CI: 4, 3-6 mg N h-1  m-2 ) than in S. patens (25, 15-36 mg N h-1  m-2 ) and Phragmites australis (56, 16-96 mg N h-1  m-2 ) zones. Vegetation zone was the single best predictor and explained 52% of the variation in denitrification potential; incorporating restoration status and soil characteristics (soil salinity, moisture, and ammonium) did not improve model fit. Because denitrification potential did not differ between tidally restored and unrestricted marshes, we suggest landscape-scale changes in denitrification after tidal restoration are likely to be associated with shifts in vegetation, rather than differences driven by restoration status. Sea-level-rise-induced hydrologic changes are widely observed to shift high marsh dominated by S. patens to short-form S. alterniflora. To explore the implications of this shift in dominant high marsh vegetation, we paired our measured mean denitrification potential rates with projections of high marsh loss from SLR. We found that, under low and medium SLR scenarios, predicted losses of denitrification potential due to replacement of S. patens by short-form S. alterniflora were substantially larger than losses due to reduced high marsh land area alone. Our results suggest that changes in vegetation zones can serve as landscape-scale predictors of the response of denitrification rates to rapid changes occurring in salt marshes.

Mercury exposure of tidal marsh songbirds in the northeastern United States and its association with nest survival.

The biogeochemistry of tidal marsh sediments facilitates the transformation of mercury (Hg) into the biologically available form methylmercury (MeHg), resulting in elevated Hg exposures to tidal marsh wildlife. Saltmarsh and Acadian Nelson's sparrows (Ammospiza caudacutua and A. nelsoni subvirgatus, respectively) exclusively inhabit tidal marshes, potentially experiencing elevated risk to Hg exposure, and have experienced range-wide population declines. To characterize spatial and temporal variation of Hg exposure in these species, we sampled total mercury (THg) in blood collected from 9 populations spanning 560 km of coastline, including individuals resampled within and among years. Using concurrent nesting studies, we tested whether THg was correlated with nest survival probabilities, an index of fecundity. Blood THg ranged from 0.074-3.373 µg/g ww across 170 samples from 127 individuals. We detected high spatial variability in Hg exposure, observing differences of more than 45-fold across all individuals and 8-fold in mean blood THg among all study plots, including 4-fold between study plots within 4 km. Intraindividual changes in blood Hg exposure did not vary systematically in time but were considerable, varying by up to 2-fold within and among years. Controlling for both species differences and maximum water level, the dominant driver of fecundity in this system, nest survival probability decreased by 10% across the full range of female blood THg concentrations observed. We conclude that Hg has the potential to impair songbird reproduction, potentially exacerbating known climate-change driven population declines from sea-level rise in saltmarsh and Acadian Nelson's sparrows.

Geographic variation of mercury in breeding tidal marsh sparrows of the northeastern United States.

Saltmarsh sparrows (Ammospiza caudacuta) and seaside sparrows (A. maritima) are species of conservation concern primarily due to global sea-level rise and habitat degradation. Environmental mercury (Hg) contamination may present additional threats to their reproductive success and survival. To assess site-specific total mercury (THg) exposure and identify environmental correlates of THg detection, we sampled blood from adult male saltmarsh and seaside sparrows at 27 sites between Maine and Virginia, USA. The mean THg concentration (±1 SD) throughout the entire sampling range was 0.531 ± 0.287 µg/g wet weight (ww) for saltmarsh sparrows and 0.442 ± 0.316 µg/g ww for seaside sparrows. Individual THg concentrations ranged from 0.135-1.420 µg/g ww for saltmarsh sparrows and 0.153-1.530 µg/g ww for seaside sparrows. Model averaging from a suite of linear mixed models showed that saltmarsh sparrows averaged 20.1% higher blood THg concentrations than seaside sparrows, potentially due to differences in diet or foraging behavior. We found no evidence for a relationship between sparrow THg concentrations and land cover surrounding sampled marshes or average precipitation-based Hg deposition. Overall, our results suggest considerable, unexplained variation in tidal marsh sparrow blood THg concentrations over their co-occurring breeding ranges.

Framework for quantifying population responses to disturbance reveals that coastal birds are highly resilient to hurricanes.

Changes in the frequency and severity of extreme weather may introduce new threats to species that are already under stress from gradual habitat loss and climate change. We provide a probabilistic framework that quantifies potential threats by applying concepts from ecological resilience to single populations. Our approach uses computation to compare disturbance-impacted projections to a population's normal range of variation, quantifying the full range of potential impacts. We illustrate this framework with projection models for coastal birds, which are commonly depicted as vulnerable to disturbances, especially hurricanes and oil spills. We found that populations of coastal specialists are resilient to extreme disturbances, with high resistance to the effects of short-term reductions in vital rates and recovery within 20 years. Applying the general framework presented here across disturbance-prone species and ecosystems would improve understanding of population resilience and generate specific projections of resilience that are needed for effective conservation planning.

Genomics of rapid ecological divergence and parallel adaptation in four tidal marsh sparrows.

Theory suggests that different taxa having colonized a similar, challenging environment will show parallel or lineage-specific adaptations to shared selection pressures, but empirical examples of parallel evolution in independent taxa are exceedingly rare. We employed comparative genomics to identify parallel and lineage-specific responses to selection within and among four species of North American sparrows that represent four independent, post-Pleistocene colonization events by an ancestral, upland subspecies and a derived salt marsh specialist. We identified multiple cases of parallel adaptation in these independent comparisons following salt marsh colonization, including selection of 12 candidate genes linked to osmoregulation. In addition to detecting shared genetic targets of selection across multiple comparisons, we found many novel, species-specific signatures of selection, including evidence of selection of loci associated with both physiological and behavioral mechanisms of osmoregulation. Demographic reconstructions of all four species highlighted their recent divergence and small effective population sizes, as expected given their rapid radiation into saline environments. Our results highlight the interplay of both shared and lineage-specific selection pressures in the colonization of a biotically and abiotically challenging habitat and confirm theoretical expectations that steep environmental clines can drive repeated and rapid evolutionary diversification in birds.

Anthropogenic fragmentation of landscapes: mechanisms for eroding the specificity of plant-herbivore interactions.

Reduced ecological specialization is an emerging, general pattern of ecological networks in fragmented landscapes. In plant-herbivore interactions, reductions in dietary specialization of herbivore communities are consistently associated with fragmented landscapes, but the causes remain poorly understood. We propose several hypothetical bottom-up and top-down mechanisms that may reduce the specificity of plant-herbivore interactions. These include empirically plausible applications and extensions of theory based on reduced habitat patch size and isolation (considered jointly), and habitat edge effects. Bottom-up effects in small, isolated habitat patches may limit availability of suitable hostplants, a constraint that increases with dietary specialization. Poor hostplant quality due to inbreeding in such fragments may especially disadvantage dietary specialist herbivores even when their hostplants are present. Size and isolation of habitat patches may change patterns of predation of herbivores, but whether such putative changes are associated with herbivore dietary specialization should depend on the mobility, size, and diet breadth of predators. Bottom-up edge effects may favor dietary generalist herbivores, yet top-down edge effects may favor dietary specialists owing to reduced predation. An increasingly supported edge effect is trophic ricochets generated by large grazers/browsers, which remove key hostplant species of specialist herbivores. We present empirical evidence that greater deer browsing in small forest fragments disproportionately reduces specialist abundances in lepidopteran assemblages in northeastern USA. Despite indirect evidence for these mechanisms, they have received scant direct testing with experimental approaches at a landscape scale. Identifying their relative contributions to reduced specificity of plant-herbivore interactions in fragmented landscapes is an important research goal.

Landowner behavior can determine the success of conservation strategies for ecosystem migration under sea-level rise.

The human aspects of conservation are often overlooked but will be critical for identifying strategies for biological conservation in the face of climate change. We surveyed the behavioral intentions of coastal landowners with respect to various conservation strategies aimed at facilitating ecosystem migration for tidal marshes. We found that several popular strategies, including conservation easements and increasing awareness of ecosystem services, may not interest enough landowners to allow marsh migration at the spatial scales needed to mitigate losses from sea-level rise. We identified less common conservation strategies that have more support but that are unproven in practice and may be more expensive. Our results show that failure to incorporate human dimensions into ecosystem modeling and conservation planning could lead to the use of ineffective strategies and an overly optimistic view of the potential for ecosystem migration into human dominated areas.

Subspecies delineation amid phenotypic, geographic and genetic discordance in a songbird.

Understanding the processes that drive divergence within and among species is a long-standing goal in evolutionary biology. Traditional approaches to assessing differentiation rely on phenotypes to identify intra- and interspecific variation, but many species express subtle morphological gradients in which boundaries among forms are unclear. This intraspecific variation may be driven by differential adaptation to local conditions and may thereby reflect the evolutionary potential within a species. Here, we combine genetic and morphological data to evaluate intraspecific variation within the Nelson's (Ammodramus nelsoni) and salt marsh (Ammodramus caudacutus) sparrow complex, a group with populations that span considerable geographic distributions and a habitat gradient. We evaluated genetic structure among and within five putative subspecies of A. nelsoni and A. caudacutus using a reduced-representation sequencing approach to generate a panel of 1929 SNPs among 69 individuals. Although we detected morphological differences among some groups, individuals sorted along a continuous phenotypic gradient. In contrast, the genetic data identified three distinct clusters corresponding to populations that inhabit coastal salt marsh, interior freshwater marsh and coastal brackish-water marsh habitats. These patterns support the current species-level recognition but do not match the subspecies-level taxonomy within each species-a finding which may have important conservation implications. We identified loci exhibiting patterns of elevated divergence among and within these species, indicating a role for local selective pressures in driving patterns of differentiation across the complex. We conclude that this evidence for adaptive variation among subspecies warrants the consideration of evolutionary potential and genetic novelty when identifying conservation units for this group.

Demographic analysis demonstrates systematic but independent spatial variation in abiotic and biotic stressors across 59 percent of a global species range.

The balance of abiotic and biotic stressors experienced by a species likely varies across its range, resulting in spatially heterogeneous limitations on the species' demographic rates. Support for spatial variation in stressors (often latitudinal gradients) has been found in many species, usually with physiological or correlative occupancy data, but it has rarely been estimated directly with demographic data. We collected demographic data from 23 sites spanning the majority of the Saltmarsh Sparrow (Ammodramus caudacutus) breeding range. Using data from 837 nests, we quantified the abiotic and biotic variables most important to nest survival, which is the dominant driver of both fecundity and population growth rate in this species. We separately estimated daily nest failure probability due to nest depredation (biotic stressor) and nest flooding (abiotic stressor), which collectively account for almost all nest failure in the species. Nest depredation decreased with latitude, whereas nest flooding was not related to latitude. Instead, nest flooding was best predicted by a combination of maximum high tide, extremity of rare flooding events, and date. For a single vital rate, we observed predictable variation in competing biotic and abiotic stressors across this species range. We observed that biotic and abiotic stressors were geographically independent, both on a large spatial scale and locally. Our results suggest that stressors on the fecundity of Saltmarsh Sparrow vary systematically across its range, but independently. The observed patterns of biotic and abiotic stress provide information for efforts to conserve the Saltmarsh Sparrow, which is considered threatened. Further, understanding the effects that different stressors, and their interactions, have on demographic rates is necessary to unravel the processes that govern species distributions and to effectively conserve biodiversity in the face of global change.

El balance de factores de estrés abióticos y bióticos para una especie probablemente varía a través de su rango, dando como resultado limitaciones espaciales heterogéneas en las tasas demográficas de la especie. Se ha verificado la existencia de variación espacial en los factores de estrés (usualmente gradientes latitudinales) para muchas especies, usualmente con datos fisiológicos o de ocupación correlativa, pero raramente se ha estimado directamente con datos demográficos. Colectamos datos demográficos de 23 sitios abarcando la mayoría del rango reproductivo de Ammodramus caudacutus. Usando datos de 837 nidos, cuantificamos las variables abióticas y bióticas más importantes para la supervivencia del nido, que es la variable que determina tanto la fecundidad como la tasa de crecimiento poblacional en esta especie. Por otra parte, estimamos la probabilidad de fracaso diario del nido debido a la depredación del nido (factor de estrés biótico) e inundación del nido (factor de estrés abiótico), que juntos representaron casi todos los fracasos del nido en esta especie. La depredación del nido disminuyó con la latitud mientras que la inundación del nido no se relacionó con la latitud. En cambio, la inundación del nido se predijo mejor por una combinación del máximo superior de la marea, la extremidad de los eventos de inundación raros y la fecha. Considerando una sola tasa vital, observamos variación predecible en los factores de estrés biótico y abiótico que compiten a través del rango de la especie. Observamos que los factores de estrés biótico y abiótico fueron geográficamente independientes tanto a una escala espacial grande como a la escala local. Nuestros resultados sugieren que los factores de estrés relacionados a la fecundidad de A. caudacutus varían sistemática pero independientemente a través de su rango. Los patrones observados de estrés biótico y abiótico brindan información para los esfuerzos de conservación de A. caudacutus, una especie considerada amenazada. Más aún, es necesario entender los efectos que los diferentes factores de estrés y sus interacciones tienen en las tasas demográficas para desenmarañar los procesos que gobiernan las distribuciones de las especies y para conservar la biodiversidad de manera eficiente en miras al cambio global.

Seasonal fecundity is not related to geographic position across a species' global range despite a central peak in abundance.

The range of a species is determined by the balance of its demographic rates across space. Population growth rates are widely hypothesized to be greatest at the geographic center of the species range, but indirect empirical support for this pattern using abundance as a proxy has been mixed, and demographic rates are rarely quantified on a large spatial scale. Therefore, the texture of how demographic rates of a species vary over its range remains an open question. We quantified seasonal fecundity of populations spanning the majority of the global range of a single species, the saltmarsh sparrow (Ammodramus caudacutus), which demonstrates a peak of abundance at the geographic center of its range. We used a novel, population projection method to estimate seasonal fecundity inclusive of seasonal and spatial variation in life history traits that contribute to seasonal fecundity. We replicated our study over 3 years, and compared seasonal fecundity to latitude and distance among plots. We observed large-scale patterns in some life history traits that contribute to seasonal fecundity, such as an increase in clutch size with latitude. However, we observed no relationship between latitude and seasonal fecundity. Instead, fecundity varied greatly among plots separated by as little as 1 km. Our results do not support the hypothesis that demographic rates are highest at the geographic and abundance center of a species range, but rather they suggest that local drivers strongly influence saltmarsh sparrow fecundity across their global range.

Predictors of specialist avifaunal decline in coastal marshes.

Coastal marshes are one of the world's most productive ecosystems. Consequently, they have been heavily used by humans for centuries, resulting in ecosystem loss. Direct human modifications such as road crossings and ditches and climatic stressors such as sea-level rise and extreme storm events have the potential to further degrade the quantity and quality of marsh along coastlines. We used an 18-year marsh-bird database to generate population trends for 5 avian species (Rallus crepitans, Tringa semipalmata semipalmata, Ammodramus nelsonii subvirgatus, Ammodramus caudacutus, and Ammodramus maritimus) that breed almost exclusively in tidal marshes, and are potentially vulnerable to marsh degradation and loss as a result of anthropogenic change. We generated community and species trends across 3 spatial scales and explored possible drivers of the changes we observed, including marsh ditching, tidal restriction through road crossings, local rates of sea-level rise, and potential for extreme flooding events. The specialist community showed negative trends in tidally restricted marshes (-2.4% annually from 1998 to 2012) but was stable in unrestricted marshes across the same period. At the species level, we found negative population trends in 3 of the 5 specialist species, ranging from -4.2% to 9.0% annually. We suggest that tidal restriction may accelerate degradation of tidal marsh resilience to sea-level rise by limiting sediment supply necessary for marsh accretion, resulting in specialist habitat loss in tidally restricted marshes. Based on our findings, we predict a collapse of the global population of Saltmarsh Sparrows (A. caudacutus) within the next 50 years and suggest that immediate conservation action is needed to prevent extinction of this species. We also suggest mitigation actions to restore sediment supply to coastal marshes to help sustain this ecosystem into the future.

High-resolution tide projections reveal extinction threshold in response to sea-level rise.

Sea-level rise will affect coastal species worldwide, but models that aim to predict these effects are typically based on simple measures of sea level that do not capture its inherent complexity, especially variation over timescales shorter than 1 year. Coastal species might be most affected, however, by floods that exceed a critical threshold. The frequency and duration of such floods may be more important to population dynamics than mean measures of sea level. In particular, the potential for changes in the frequency and duration of flooding events to result in nonlinear population responses or biological thresholds merits further research, but may require that models incorporate greater resolution in sea level than is typically used. We created population simulations for a threatened songbird, the saltmarsh sparrow (Ammodramus caudacutus), in a region where sea level is predictable with high accuracy and precision. We show that incorporating the timing of semidiurnal high tide events throughout the breeding season, including how this timing is affected by mean sea-level rise, predicts a reproductive threshold that is likely to cause a rapid demographic shift. This shift is likely to threaten the persistence of saltmarsh sparrows beyond 2060 and could cause extinction as soon as 2035. Neither extinction date nor the population trajectory was sensitive to the emissions scenarios underlying sea-level projections, as most of the population decline occurred before scenarios diverge. Our results suggest that the variation and complexity of climate-driven variables could be important for understanding the potential responses of coastal species to sea-level rise, especially for species that rely on coastal areas for reproduction.

Factors that influence vital rates of Seaside and Saltmarsh sparrows in coastal New Jersey, USA.

As saltmarsh habitat continues to disappear, understanding the factors that influence saltmarsh breeding bird population dynamics is an important step for the conservation of these declining species. Using five years (2011 - 2015) of demographic data, we evaluated and compared Seaside (Ammodramus maritimus) and Saltmarsh (A. caudacutus) sparrow apparent adult survival and nest survival at the Edwin B. Forsythe National Wildlife Refuge, New Jersey, USA. We determined the effect of site management history (unditched vs. ditched marsh) on adult and nest survival to aid in prioritizing future management or restoration actions. Seaside Sparrow apparent adult survival (61.6%, 95% CI: 52.5 - 70.0%) averaged >1.5 times greater than Saltmarsh Sparrow apparent adult survival (39.9%, 95% CI: 34.0 - 46.2%). Nest survival and predation and flooding rates did not differ between species, and predation was the primary cause of failure for both species. Apparent adult survival and nest survival did not differ between unditched and ditched marshes for either species, indicating that marsh ditching history may not affect breeding habitat quality for these species. With predation as the primary cause of nest failure for both species in New Jersey, we suggest that future research should focus on identification of predator communities in salt marshes and the potential for implementing predator-control programs to limit population declines.

Assessing uncertainty in sighting records: an example of the Barbary lion.

As species become rare and approach extinction, purported sightings can be controversial, especially when scarce management resources are at stake. We consider the probability that each individual sighting of a series is valid. Obtaining these probabilities requires a strict framework to ensure that they are as accurately representative as possible. We used a process, which has proven to provide accurate estimates from a group of experts, to obtain probabilities for the validation of 32 sightings of the Barbary lion. We consider the scenario where experts are simply asked whether a sighting was valid, as well as asking them to score the sighting based on distinguishablity, observer competence, and verifiability. We find that asking experts to provide scores for these three aspects resulted in each sighting being considered more individually, meaning that this new questioning method provides very different estimated probabilities that a sighting is valid, which greatly affects the outcome from an extinction model. We consider linear opinion pooling and logarithm opinion pooling to combine the three scores, and also to combine opinions on each sighting. We find the two methods produce similar outcomes, allowing the user to focus on chosen features of each method, such as satisfying the marginalisation property or being externally Bayesian.

First evidence of bryophyte diaspores in the plumage of transequatorial migrant birds.

Correlations between transequatorial migratory bird routes and bipolar biogeographic disjunctions in bryophytes suggest that disjunctions between northern and southern high latitude regions may result from bird-mediated dispersal; supporting evidence is, however, exclusively circumstantial. Birds disperse plant units (diaspores) internally via ingestion (endozoochory) or externally by the attachment of diaspores to the body (ectozoochory). Endozoochory is known to be the primary means of bird-mediated dispersal for seeds and invertebrates at local, regional, and continental scales. Data supporting the role of bird-mediated endozoochory or ectozoochory in the long distance dispersal of bryophytes remain sparse, however, despite the large number of bryophytes displaying bipolar disjunctions. To determine if transequatorial migrant shorebirds may play a role in the ectozoochory of bryophyte diaspores, we developed a method for screening feathers of wild birds. We provide the first evidence of microscopic bryophyte diaspores, as well as those from non-bryophyte lineages, embedded in the plumage of long distance transequatorial migrant birds captured in their arctic breeding grounds. The number of diaspores recovered suggests that entire migratory populations may be departing their northern breeding grounds laden with potentially viable plant parts and that they could thereby play significant roles in bipolar range expansions of lineages previously ignored in the migrant bird dispersal literature.

How area sensitivity in birds is studied.

Studies of avian area sensitivity have been prolific over the last 3 decades, yet general conclusions about the phenomenon are lacking. We undertook a systematic literature review to determine how widespread area sensitivity is; whether published information is biased toward certain geographic regions, habitat types, or taxonomic groups; whether the nature of area effects varies with respect to these criteria; and whether tests of area effects for individual species produce consistent results. Analysis of over 2700 area sensitivity tests, from more than 870 species, indicated the phenomenon is widespread across regions, habitats, and taxonomic groups, but that significant biases in research focus exist. North American forest habitats and Passeriformes (especially Fringillidae, Regulidae, and Paridae) are disproportionately represented in the literature. Detection of area effects was more common in tests of occurrence (47%) than in those for abundance (25%) and varied significantly among regions, habitats, and taxonomic groups. Inconsistent results for species studied multiple times and between tests of occurrence and abundance were common. These results suggest a need for future research to focus more on why area sensitivity patterns differ among studies and less on simple pattern description.

Identifying anomalous reports of putatively extinct species and why it matters.

As species become very rare and approach extinction, purported sightings can stir controversy, especially when scarce management resources are at stake. We used quantitative methods to identify reports that do not fit prior sighting patterns. We also examined the effects of including records that meet different evidentiary standards on quantitative extinction assessments for four charismatic bird species that might be extinct: Eskimo Curlew (Numenius borealis), Ivory-billed Woodpecker (Campephilus principalis), Nukupu'u (Hemignathus lucidus), and O'ahu 'Alauahio (Paroreomyza maculata). For all four species the probability of there being a valid sighting today, given the past pattern of verified sightings, was estimated to be very low. The estimates of extinction dates and the chance of new sightings, however, differed considerably depending on the criteria used for data inclusion. When a historical sighting record lacked long periods without sightings, the likelihood of new sightings declined quickly with time since the last confirmed sighting. For species with this type of historical record, therefore, new reports should meet an especially high burden of proof to be acceptable. Such quantitative models could be incorporated into the International Union for Conservation of Nature's Red List criteria to set evidentiary standards required for unconfirmed sightings of "possibly extinct" species and to standardize extinction assessments across species.

Goodness of fit of probability distributions for sightings as species approach extinction.

Estimating the probability that a species is extinct and the timing of extinctions is useful in biological fields ranging from paleoecology to conservation biology. Various statistical methods have been introduced to infer the time of extinction and extinction probability from a series of individual sightings. There is little evidence, however, as to which of these models provide adequate fit to actual sighting records. We use L-moment diagrams and probability plot correlation coefficient (PPCC) hypothesis tests to evaluate the goodness of fit of various probabilistic models to sighting data collected for a set of North American and Hawaiian bird populations that have either gone extinct, or are suspected of having gone extinct, during the past 150 years. For our data, the uniform, truncated exponential, and generalized Pareto models performed moderately well, but the Weibull model performed poorly. Of the acceptable models, the uniform distribution performed best based on PPCC goodness of fit comparisons and sequential Bonferroni-type tests. Further analyses using field significance tests suggest that although the uniform distribution is the best of those considered, additional work remains to evaluate the truncated exponential model more fully. The methods we present here provide a framework for evaluating subsequent models.